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中国经济社会高质量发展面临的形势和有利条件
Current Circumstances and Favorable Conditions for Promoting High-Quality Economic and Social Development
秋平
Qiu Ping
从国际看，挑战与机遇并存
On the international stage, challenges and opportunities exist side by side
一方面，外部环境复杂性、严峻性、不确定性明显上升，带来的不利影响增多。全球经济增长动力不足，全球经济金融动荡可能加剧，部分新兴市场国家面临本币贬值、资本外流、债务加重压力。国际地缘政治局势不稳，大国博弈对抗性上升，局部冲突和动荡频发，外溢效应不断显现。
On the one hand, the external environment, which has grown more complex, grave, and uncertain, is having an increasingly negative impact. Global economic momentum remains weak. Global economic and financial volatility could potentially worsen, as some emerging market nations face escalating pressures from currency depreciation, capital outflows, and rising debt levels. Geopolitical instability is being driven by intensifying rivalries between major countries and the frequent outbreak of local conflicts and upheaval, all of which are creating more spillover effects.
另一方面，全球经济呈现复苏态势，国际贸易增长有所恢复，有利于中国企业发挥优势，拓展国际市场。新兴经济体发展势头良好，成为世界经济增长的重要引擎，国际影响力和全球治理话语权不断增强。
On the other hand, the global economy is showing signs of recovery, and international trade is rebounding. This will help Chinese companies leverage their advantages to broaden their international market presence. Emerging economies are demonstrating strong development momentum and growing into important engines for the world economy. Their influence and voice in global governance also continue to grow.
高质量共建“一带一路”扎实推进，中国构建了广泛的朋友圈，与共建国家不断增进互联互通、持续深化合作共赢，为共建国家乃至全球经济发展注入强劲新动能。
High-quality cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative has delivered concrete progress, and China’s circle of friends continues to expand. By working with Belt and Road partners to enhance connectivity and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, we have helped inject fresh momentum into both partner economies and the global economy as a whole.
从国内看，压力与动力同在
At the domestic level, we are seeing both pressure and momentum
一方面，总量问题与结构矛盾并存，发展质量和效益有待进一步提升。有效需求不足，投资增长面临制约，居民就业增收难度较大，消费能力和意愿不够强。经济运行出现分化，行业冷热不均，一些传统行业企业发展面临较多困难挑战。
On the one hand, we are confronted by both aggregate issues and structural challenges, which require us to improve both the quality and effectiveness of development. We face inadequate effective demand, constraints on investment growth, difficulties in ensuring employment and boosting income, and an insufficient capacity and willingness to spend among consumers. The economy is showing signs of segmentation, as evidenced by uneven performance among industries. Specifically, many enterprises in traditional sectors are encountering significant difficulties and challenges.
国内大循环存在堵点，要素有序流动仍受到制约。生态文明建设仍处于压力叠加、负重前行的关键期，绿色低碳发展的基础仍需夯实。
Bottlenecks are hindering domestic economic flows and limiting the movement of production factors. Furthermore, our ecological conservation efforts remain in a critical period marked by overlapping pressures and formidable tasks, while the foundation for green and low-carbon development requires further strengthening.
另一方面，中国推进经济社会高质量发展仍然具备良好支撑基础和许多有利条件。中共二十届三中全会全面部署了进一步全面深化改革的重大举措，将有力破解深层次体制机制障碍和结构性矛盾，进一步解放和发展生产力，不断为中国式现代化注入强劲动力、提供有力制度保障。
On the other hand, China continues to enjoy robust fundamentals and favorable conditions for achieving high-quality economic and social development. The key measures put forward by the 20th CPC Central Committee during its third plenary session in 2024 are focused on further deepening comprehensive reform. They will enable us to effectively address deep-seated institutional obstacles and structural challenges, further liberate and develop the productive forces, and continue providing the necessary drivers and institutional guarantees for advancing Chinese modernization.
超大规模市场优势不断显现，中国拥有14亿多人口、4亿多人中等收入群体，拥有全球最完备的产业体系、日益完备的基础设施网络，新质生产力加快发展，居民衣食住行和精神文化需求潜力巨大，产业新领域新赛道、短板领域、薄弱环节的投资还有很大空间，促进新型工业化和新型城镇化协调发展将为需求扩大提供持久活力。
The advantages of China’s vast market are also becoming increasingly evident. China has a population of over 1.4 billion, with upwards of 400 million people in its middle-income bracket. It boasts the world’s most complete industrial system alongside an increasingly robust infrastructure network. With the rapid development of new quality productive forces, there remains significant space for meeting people’s needs for clothing, food, housing, transportation, and culture. There are still ample opportunities for investment in new industries, new arenas, and weaker areas and links. Going forward, coordinated progress in new industrialization and new urbanization will help ensure the sustained growth of domestic demand.
逆周期调节政策仍有足够空间，宏观组合政策加力提效，“两重”、“两新”工作等重大举措正在加快推进，超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券、中央预算内投资等将为经济增长提供有力支撑。
Moreover, there remains sufficient space for further countercyclical adjustments, and the combination of macro policies has been improved to ensure greater effectiveness. Major initiatives are being fast-tracked, including those to support major national strategies and security capacity-building in key sectors, as well as large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in schemes for consumer goods. As a result, ultra-long-term special government bonds, local government special-purpose bonds, and central government budget investment will all provide robust support for economic growth.
绿色低碳发展成效显著，能源绿色转型步伐加快，资源循环利用率大幅提升，为实现更可持续的发展提供坚实基础。
Impressive progress has been made in pursuing green and low-carbon development. Our transition to green energy is advancing at a rapid pace, and the recycling rate for resources has markedly increased. All this is providing a solid foundation for more sustainable development.
中文编辑：郝遥
英文编辑：衣小伟
英文审校：张娴 李晓琼
监制：李达 李振通
